Sunday, July 23, 2006

Democrats Tweak the Primary Calendar

Democrats Tweak the Primary Calendar

Buried deep within the pages of the Washington today was a short piece about the changes made to the Primary and Caucus calendar. While at first this may seem inconsequential to some, these changes are actually very important.

Yesterday, the Democrats made big changes for 2008, adding two states to the perceived crucial early days of the presidential nomination process. Nevada will be placed in between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. South Carolina will come after New Hampshire but before Feb. 5, when any state can schedule a vote.

There will, of course, be some fall out when NH throws its fit over a state moving ahead of it in line. There is a NH state law that requires it to be the first primary. (not caucus) This is some major toe-stepping. But once the temper tantrums and historical appreciation are over with, there is a lot more to this change.

First, Nevada is big with the unions. That one thing alone can shape and change the entire presidential election process. Although most of the politically unaware people in this world think that the state primary and caucus system has little to do with them, and is just some strange thing that happens in Iowa at butter festivals, they are wrong. In the earliest stages of the primaries, it is the simple, "I heard he's leading in the polls in Arizona," that make or break a campaign. It's all about word of mouth and how many times "Romney is leading among women in Texas," is heard on the evening news, that wins a campaign. You think you don't care and aren't following the campaigns. But you did just hear that Romney is big with the women in Texas (and trust me, ladies, he will be when we get there), you many not know anything else about him, but you know that women in Texas like him. You perceive that Texas women are strong and independent types, and therefore, because you are strong and independent, you have just completely subconsciously decided to vote for Romney.

With Nevada moving ahead in the race, and the influence of unions (all casino workers are unionized), this can change everything. This means that potentially the next President of the US, will be decided by blackjack dealers in Vegas. And let's not forget the strippers! It will be the preferences of the strippers in Vegas that will make the evening news read, "Hillary Wins Big in Vegas," but you'll have to read closely to find out that it was a straw poll with the exotic dancers. But it doesn't matter, most people won't ever dig that deep, and will only hear that the women in NV like Clinton. (It's safe to assume the strippers won't like Romney.)

My point? This is why people need to get involved in local and early politics. It's the people that do get out and vote in straw polls, and participate in the primaries that make all the difference in who is elected next. Moving NV up is a very very strategic move by the Dems. (do note- I'm not criticizing them- i'm actually applauding their very strategic move) But I'm also encouraging you to get out and get involved if you don't want casino workers determining the next president.


  1. I bet there's more mormons in Nevada than black-jack dealers.


  2. I am sure you are right, but I doubt they are over they are over the age of 18 and unionized!
    Hmm... maybe that is what Romney needs to win Nevada... unionized Sunday School teachers...

  3. The thing about Nevada is that traditionally it's a red state when it comes to presidential elections. However, with the recent growth--especially in Vegas--its trending democratic..and will probably vote democratic next election but its definitely not a California or a New York (diehard blue state). Even with the casino and mining unions the state is still a bit of a wild-card for 2008--although because of the growing (ethnic minority)population, it won't be as much of a wildcard in 2012 or political races beyond.

    I think something like 10-15% of the population of Nevada is LDS--all I'm saying is I bet there's more LDS voters in the state than unionized black jack dealers.

    Besides, Unions are traditionally democrats. Whose to say that they won't spend most of their time and money focusing on the Dem race...or we don't even know who'll be the top 6 Repub candidates.

  4. I agree with you completely. But my point is more along the lines that the recipient of the Dem nomination will now be greatly affected by what Nevada and the unions therein think. Going on the standby that most Mormons will vote red, and vote Romney (yes, I know this isn't entirely true- but speaking in glittering generalities it is), Romney will get a leg up there. Nevada will be an interesting battle ground between its die hard conservative Mormons and the very strong influence of unions.

  5. That's what I thought your point was but all the talk about Romney confused me a little.


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