Thursday, January 03, 2008

Iowa Caucus Predictions

Anyone want to predict the outcome in Iowa with me?

My predictions-

For the GOP-

I think Huckabee and Romney will be within 2% of each other. In other words, no clear winner. (But that won't stop the winner from peacocking like it was a landslide.) I hope Romney is the peacock, but right now I think it is too close to call.
McCain will get about 10%, which is not enough to keep his cash strapped campaign alive. He will stay in the race through New Hampshire, and will then withdraw and throw his support behind Huck. I am thoroughly convinced that has already been arranged.
Giuliani will lose big time in Iowa, but this will have no bearing on anything. He still has money and a glimmer of hope in Florida. The polls say nationally he is the front runner. But if you read closely, you'll see he's only leading in states no one has campaigned in. In other words? He is only "winning" on name recognition, and as soon as people start listening they change their minds about Giuliani.
Ron Paul will have the weakest showing ever. He will withdraw in a few weeks as well and will take his measly 4% of supporters and go independent.

And for the Dems-

Edwards and Clinton tie with about 25-30% of the vote, and Obama is right behind them by about 2-3%. Richards will drop out of the race on Monday.
We will also quickly start hearing that as much as people like Obama, African-Americans will continue their historic trend and not actually go out to vote. Obama will lose entirely based on this unfortunate trend. Expect Jesse Jackson to start loud-mouthing all over the planet, as well as Oprah, doing everything under the sun possible to attempt to reverse this trend. Making this campaign more than ever about race, alienating many other voters.


  1. I don't think McCain will withdraw immediately after New Hampshire Because I think he and Romney will be about even. He would possibly withdraw at that point, except that I think Thompson will leave the race and officially support McCain. Though Thompson's support is small the next big race is South Carolina- traditionally not strong for McCain, but it won't be strong for Romney either. If McCain can pick up about half of Thompson's support with most of the rest likely going to Huckabee.
    Then things will get really interesting and second place in Florida will be pretty much up for grabs.

    I don't think Guiliani will drop out any time soon- but I don't think he'll necessarily get the nomination either. It will be really interesting to see what happens, but the Republican race still seems to be a crapshoot. I don't think Huckabee can hang onto his surge in popularity once the party base really looks closely at him. He caters well to the evangelical portion of the base, but not to fiscal conservatives. I've always argued Romney has a very good shot at winning the nomination- I think things are playing out to prove that to be true. (Although as a democrat that's kind of a positive thing. I think that many other candidates are more electable in the general election than Romney and I think his nomination would be a good thing for liberals who want to see a democrat in office.)

    As for the Dems, if Edwards doesn't win by at least a few points in Iowa I think he's done. If he can't win Iowa solidly, where can he win?
    As for Obama, he's worked really hard to avoid making his candidacy about race- but I think others you mention (like Jackson) may work to negate that. However, I don't think that mobilization of black voters really helps Obama that much. In most polls the support for Clinton and Obama is split pretty evenly among black voters. Obama is helped much more by independents, moderates, and by first time voters. The question is more whether they will turn out in the primaries. (in many states independents can't, and in states with open primaries they don't usually show up any way.)

  2. Interesting take. You should keep up these quick recaps of what is happening.


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