Anyone want to predict the outcome in Iowa with me?
For the GOP-
I think Huckabee and Romney will be within 2% of each other. In other words, no clear winner. (But that won't stop the winner from peacocking like it was a landslide.) I hope Romney is the peacock, but right now I think it is too close to call.
McCain will get about 10%, which is not enough to keep his cash strapped campaign alive. He will stay in the race through New Hampshire, and will then withdraw and throw his support behind Huck. I am thoroughly convinced that has already been arranged.
Giuliani will lose big time in Iowa, but this will have no bearing on anything. He still has money and a glimmer of hope in Florida. The polls say nationally he is the front runner. But if you read closely, you'll see he's only leading in states no one has campaigned in. In other words? He is only "winning" on name recognition, and as soon as people start listening they change their minds about Giuliani.
Ron Paul will have the weakest showing ever. He will withdraw in a few weeks as well and will take his measly 4% of supporters and go independent.
And for the Dems-
Edwards and Clinton tie with about 25-30% of the vote, and Obama is right behind them by about 2-3%. Richards will drop out of the race on Monday.
We will also quickly start hearing that as much as people like Obama, African-Americans will continue their historic trend and not actually go out to vote. Obama will lose entirely based on this unfortunate trend. Expect Jesse Jackson to start loud-mouthing all over the planet, as well as Oprah, doing everything under the sun possible to attempt to reverse this trend. Making this campaign more than ever about race, alienating many other voters.
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